Gaussian doubling times and reproduction factors of the COVID-19 pandemic disease

  • The Gauss model for the time evolution of the first corona pandemic wave is rendered useful in the estimation of peak times, amount of required equipment, and the forecasting of fade out times. At the same time, it is probably the simplest analytically tractable model that allows us to quantitatively forecast the time evolution of infections and fatalities during a pandemic wave. In light of the various descriptors, such as doubling times and reproduction factors, currently in use to judge the lockdowns and other measures that aim to prevent spreading of the virus, we hereby provide both exact and simple approximate relationships between the two relevant parameters of the Gauss model (peak time and width), the transient behavior of two versions of doubling times, and three variants of reproduction factors, including basic reproduction numbers.

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Metadaten
Author:Martin KrögerGND, Reinhard SchlickeiserORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:hbz:294-75810
DOI:https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2020.00276
Parent Title (English):Frontiers in physics
Publisher:Frontiers Media
Place of publication:Lausanne
Document Type:Article
Language:English
Date of Publication (online):2020/10/21
Date of first Publication:2020/07/03
Publishing Institution:Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universitätsbibliothek
Tag:coronavirus; extrapolation; pandemic spreading; parameter estimation; statistical analysis
Volume:8
Issue:Article 276
First Page:276-1
Last Page:276-9
Institutes/Facilities:Institut für Theoretische Physik IV, Theoretische Weltraum- und Astrophysik
Research Department Plasmas with Complex Interactions
open_access (DINI-Set):open_access
Licence (English):License LogoCreative Commons - CC BY 4.0 - Attribution 4.0 International